Odds And Wins

The Painted Area recently made some over/under picks based on Sportsbook. Considering they went 6-1 in their picks last year, it’s probably worth taking a look.

Here’s a sample:

"San Antonio: Over 54.5 (58 wins last year)
Just look here. Since Tim Duncan entered the NBA in 1997, the Spurs have won at least 56 every year (if you pro-rate the lockout season) except 1999-00, when they won 53. Further, they have won at least 58 for seven straight seasons. I'm gonna keep riding this horse until I get thrown off."

The author doesn’t make a pick for the Bucks, who are listed as 36.5 in the article but are now at 35.5.

Here are a few other Bucks' mentions:

• Michael Redd is 15-1 to win the scoring title and 75-1 to win the MVP.

• Andrew Bogut is 35-1 to lead the league in rebounding.

• The Bucks are 35-1 to win the Eastern Conference and 100-1 to win the NBA Championship.
  

My picks on the over/under:

• Los Angeles Lakers Under 44.5
• Is this assuming they are going to land Luol Deng, Ben Gordon, and Tyrus Thomas?

• Milwaukee Bucks Over 35.5
• A Bucks blog taking the over on the Bucks? (elaboration on predictions coming soon)
  

• Orlando Magic Under 47.5
• Who inspires confidence other than Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis here?

• Seattle Supersonics Under 27.5
• In the last five years, an average of four teams per year have finished with 27 wins or fewer. How do they not fit in that equation?

• Toronto Raptors Over 41.5
• Chris Bosh, T.J. Ford, Jose Calderon, and Andrea Bargnani are on the way up, not down, right?

Bucks Previews

A couple of team previews from around the web along with my commentary:

1. NBA.com previews the Milwaukee Bucks season.

Here’s a sample:

“Scouting Report

Yi should help them. Charlie Villanueva is coming off of surgery. Bobby Simmons is coming off surgery. Andrew Bogut, look for him. He has had two good first years, but everyone will agree that he could have done better. I think this is the year that you will see the better Andrew Bogut.

Maurice Williams and Michael Redd, both those guys can go for 25 any night. Then you have Bogut, Villanueva and Yi on the front line. All three can pass, all three can face up and shoot it and all three can put on the floor and take it to the hole. That will be their strength. They will be tough to match up with.

Weaknesses, last two years they were very poor defensively. The focus of Krystkowiak this year is team defense. I am sure teams looked at the Bucks as of last year and said we have got to do these things, we can score easy. We got to really attack them. So hopefully they can change that.
-- Eastern Conference Scout”

It’s encouraging to hear that at least this particular scout is a Bogut believer.

The preview contains the basics, like a rundown of the frontcourt, backcourt, coach, and starting lineup. However, the only predictions come from an NBA Live 2008 simulation. The simulation has the Bucks going 40-42, and slipping into the playoffs as an eight seed. Yi Jianlian also makes the All-Rookie First Team.

That all sounds pretty realistic. Until it shows the Chicago Bulls and Toronto Raptors winning 39 and 36 games respectively, at which point you remember that it’s probably not wise to take video game predictions too seriously.

2. Tom Ziller of Ballhype took his NBA Festivus to the Central Division and didn’t have many good things to say about the Bucks.

Here’s a taste:

“All that risk, all that helter skelter negotiating -- and for what? Williams and Bell are the same two point guards Michael Redd went to war with last year. Ruben Patterson is gone, Brian Skinner is gone, Earl Boykins is gone. Yi is the only addition... and he comes with guaranteed playing time (25 minutes a game). If he's good, great. If he sucks? Adam Morrison Part 2. Last year, this team won a grand total of... 28 games. And you could argue they got worse. It would take unprecedented health from Redd, Bobby Simmons and Charlie Villanueva, combined with an electric debut for Yi, for this team to even think about the playoffs.”

He picks the Bucks to finish 31-51. Although the article is a highly entertaining read overall, it’s hard to understand how he thinks someone could make an argument that the Bucks got worse. For one thing, Yi was not the only addition. If Skinner and Boykins are going to be considered losses, then Desmond Mason is most certainly an addition. And as discussed repeatedly here, the entire team is young and improving. Sure, we’ve seen Dan Gadzuric stagnate, but who really thinks Bogut, Williams, and Villanueva won’t get at least a little bit better this year?

Making the playoffs will be a tough task to say the least, but I would like to hear the argument stating how the Bucks won’t match 28 wins.

Four Things Learned After Four Team USA Games

Team USA concluded group play 4-0 after rocking Brazil 113-76.

Here are four things we’ve learned after Team USA’s first four games:

• 1. USA is to basketball what Brazil is to soccer, and then some.

The hyped Team USA/Brazil match of undefeated teams resulted in Team USA’s fourth consecutive blowout and a thoroughly humbling first loss for Brazil. Even though Brazil was considered a pre-tournament contender, the wise understood that given the personnel in this tournament, Team USA would win this game. Not many people thought Team USA would lead by 47 points entering the fourth quarter though.

On September 9, Brazil’s soccer team will face the United States in an exhibition match. Brazil is the unequaled world soccer power, with more World Cups won than any other nation. Its players, like Pele and Ronaldinho, are the supreme talents of past and present. Its soccer talent runs so deep that not one player on the solid United States soccer team would make Brazil’s roster, much less be a part of the starting eleven. The real beauty of Brazilian soccer is not only the results, but the flair and ease with which they demoralize their opponents. They lose on occasion, but it’s almost always an upset when they do.

Sound familiar if you flip the script, turning soccer into football, and Brazil into U.S.A. basketball? The fact is, despite recent disappointment, Team USA remains the singular basketball world superpower. Their talent level is unmatched, and when the right mix is found, they are virtually unbeatable. They are an even sturdier, prettier superpower than Brazilian soccer, with fewer teams capable of challenging them.

• 2. Kobe can play team ball.

When Kobe Bryant was in his early twenties, leading the Lakers in assists and winning championships, life was all good in Los Angeles. Somewhere along the way, the sidekick grew up to the master (Shaq), at least in ability and ego, and the rest is history... or perhaps a current event in the NBA.

With LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, and company at his side, Bryant has seemingly bought into the team concept now more than ever. Through four games with Team USA, Bryant has stood out as one of the most passionate and team-oriented, making it a habit to jump on the floor after loose balls, play squared-up and arms-up defense, and defer to open teammates on the offensive end.

He knows that these national teams are the greatest teams he’ll ever play on, and it’s refreshing to see that he’s genuinely excited by that fact. He also senses that while the degree to which he can succeed from here on out in the NBA on a team level depends largely on the puzzling pieces surrounding him, he doesn’t have that dilemma playing for Team USA. He knows that restoring basketball glory to the United States is firmly within his grasp, and he’s not going to let that opportunity slip away.

• 3. Keep this group together, mostly.

I’ve had some different ideas about what Team USA should like look this summer and in Beijing 2008. I will say now, that even though it’s only been four games against less-than-stellar competition, this is a strong mix of players.

In fact, I spot eight virtual locks on this team for next summer’s Olympic team: Bryant, James, Anthony, Jason Kidd, Amare Stoudemire, Michael Redd, Dwight Howard, and Chauncey Billups. Two of Tayshaun Prince, Deron Williams, Mike Miller, and Tyson Chandler should probably be there as well, most likely the first two. That leaves room for only two guys not in currently Las Vegas, probably Dwyane Wade and a post player, like Chris Bosh.

• 4. Everything looks golden, but...

The wonders of Argentina’s basketball system, rooted in rich talent and dynamic team/player familiarity, isn’t going to be enough this time around. If the Manu Ginobili, Andres Nocioni, Fabricio Oberto, Walter Herrmann-led team couldn’t top Team USA while playing for a medal last summer, it would be a lot to ask for the Argentine’s to pull of a victory without the aforementioned stars.

And I’m pretty sure Brazil isn’t going to make up this much ground that fast.

But what isn’t discussed enough is that the these tournaments are decidedly upset-prone, meaning the best team won’t always win. We are accustomed to the marathon NBA Playoffs, that while sometimes are anti-climactic, always crowns the best team. The one-and-done format of international basketball is exciting, but much more kind to the hot-shooting underdog.

Team USA might not lose for quite a while, and won’t lose more than one game in Las Vegas and Beijing combined. But one untimely loss is all it takes.

Team USA and Michael Redd

Team USA will have another training session August 15-20. It will help determine which of the 17 eligible players will make the 12-man roster for the upcoming FIBA Americas Championship.

A group of ten promising young Americans were chosen to help the senior team prepare.

In an earlier post, I made my picks for Team USA’s 12-man roster.

Included in my picks was Milwaukee Bucks guard Michael Redd. He’s a sensible choice to back up Kobe Bryant given the importance of outside shooting in international competitions. His main competition appears to be Memphis Grizzlies guard and fellow sharpshooter Mike Miller. Some have argued Team USA wouldn’t mind bringing along both.

In a recent blog post, NBA.com’s Dave McMenamin chose Miller over Redd, based on Redd’s relatively poor performance in practice.

An excerpt of McMenamin’s response to a question regarding the Miller/Redd issue:

“The reason I went with Miller over Redd had very little to do with the intrasquad scrimmage at the end of the mini-camp and a lot to do with how both players performed on Friday and Saturday in practice. On Friday Redd looked out of shape and pulled himself from the fullcourt games to go shoot on a side hoop. Meanwhile, on both days, Miller was not only making shots from deep but finishing when he took it to the tin and showing very active hands on defense."

Sure, the July mini-camp/practice was three months before the start of the regular season. And Redd has the upcoming training session to redeem himself. But seeing the Bucks only star described as out of shape any time is a little disconcerting.

Looking past the FIBA’s, the out-of-shape comment brings up the old debate about whether international duty wears on players the following NBA season. This type of chatter commences whenever someone plays international ball in the summer and hits the slightest of a lull a couple months into the NBA’s regular season.

But is there reason to worry? Let’s examine how last summer’s Team USA followed up their bronze-winning effort:

• Carmelo Anthony: He hyperextended his knee while playing for Team USA but was easily ready for the Nuggets season. He also exploded for career-best 28.9 point per game and played 65 regular season games.

• Shane Battier: Played all 82 games, in consistent, Battier-like fashion.

• Chris Bosh: Had career-year in leading Toronto Raptors to division title. Missed some time in the regular season due to knee injury suffered in a game versus the Chicago Bulls.

• Elton Brand: Appeared in 80 very strong games. Proved this summer that offseason injuries happen in simple, daily workouts sometimes.

• Kirk Hinrich: Also played 80 of 82 regular season games. Posted career-highs in points per game (16.6), field goal percentage (.448), three-point percentage (.415), and free-throw percentage (.835).

• Dwight Howard: Played all 82 games. Stepped up with career-year.

• LeBron James: Played 78 amazing regular season games... And had enough left over in the tank to play 20 more in the playoffs, including a dominant performance or two.

• Antawn Jamison: Had another very good year, appearing in 70 games. Carried an overmatched and depleted Washington Wizards team admirably in the playoffs.

• Joe Johnson: Started the season in strong fashion, averaging 27.8 point per game in the first month. Missed time toward the end of the season due to calf strain suffered March 5 versus the Miami Heat.

• Brad Miller: Never the model of perfect health, Miller did play 63 games for the Sacramento Kings. Had a down year for his standards, but is on the way down in general.

• Chris Paul: He missed time due to a severely sprained ankle. Still, he played 64 games in an impressive sophomore campaign.

• Dwyane Wade: When healthy he was one of the league's brightest. But he played only 51 games thanks to shoulder and knee surgery. Came back for playoffs.

In all, that recapping-exercise doesn’t lend much support to the idea that playing international basketball in the summer before an NBA season produces adverse results.

I’d love to see Redd represent Team USA this summer. Helping restore some basketball glory to his country could give him the positive energy to jumpstart his season with the Bucks. If the likes of Jason Kidd and Kobe Bryant aren’t too worried about playing, there shouldn’t be much of a problem. And the benefits of playing competitive games with such a great team outweigh the worry that he’ll suffer from playing a little too much offseason basketball.

Furthermore, I stand by my choice that Redd should make the team.

NBA's Top 2007-08 Games

With the recent announcement of the 2007-08 NBA schedule, writers across the web have profiled some of the most intriguing games of the upcoming season.

I already highlighted five Milwaukee Bucks games. Not that any of us would be missing those.

Marty Burns picked ten compelling games for SportsIllustrated.com

The wild playoffs and busy offseason made for some easy choices. One juicy pick was the Dallas Mavericks at Golden St. Warriors playoff rematch on November 8. He also pinpointed Kevin Garnett’s return to Minnesota on February 8.

ESPN.com’s Marc Stein went further, circling seemingly every date on the NBA calendar. Well, forty-two days by my count.

He even picked a Bucks game:

"Feb. 2: Houston at Milwaukee (NBA TV)

Yao Ming -- and the Chinese media armada -- goes to Brewtown to square off with The Big Yi . . . assuming Yi Jianlian is a Buck by then. (On Nov. 9 the Bucks are in Houston, incidentally, if Yi makes it to Milwaukee for the start of the season.)"

Still, a handful of games with interesting, perhaps more subtle story lines, went unmentioned. To avoid overlap, I’ve compiled a list of five games chosen by neither Burns nor Stein:

• Wednesday, November 21 – Toronto Raptors at Memphis Grizzlies

These two franchises, born in 1995-96, are natural, mutual measuring sticks.

The Raptors got a quicker jump out of the gate, winning five more games behind Rookie of the Year point guard Damon Stoudamire.

The trend continues today, with the Raptors coming off a division title and the Grizzlies now the longest of shots for postseason play.

Nevertheless, there are intriguing parallels entering 2007-08. Both clubs are led by star, often overshadowed, power forwards in Chris Bosh and Pau Gasol. In addition, this game should offer us the first NBA game pitting two of Spain’s finest guards. Juan Carlos Navarro is headed to Memphis and Jose Calderon is already a valuable component of the Raptors.

• Tuesday, January 8 – New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls
  

The Knicks have remodeled yet again, but repeated recent failures haven’t lent much optimism that the latest mixture of talent, now starring Zach Randolph, will suddenly mesh. Talent resides in The Big Apple, but this game, the team’s third consecutive road game following daunting stops in San Antonio and Houston, could be the tipping point of the team’s yearling unraveling.

On the flipside, if the Knicks are rolling a couple months into the season, this classic big-city rivalry could be reborn on this night.

• Sunday, March 30 – Washington Wizards at Los Angeles Lakers

In last year’s Staples Center showdown between two of the most entertaining players in the NBA, Gilbert Arenas out-Kobe’d Kobe Bryant 60-45 and a came away with a win.

Bryant partially returned the favor by winning both the individual competition 39-37 and the team game in the nation's capital a month and a half later.

Still, Bryant isn’t one to be outdone and Arenas got the better of him last year. Combine the personal rivalry with the fact both stars are coming off frustrating ends to their seasons and you can expect more scintillation.

• Tuesday, April 8 – Utah Jazz at New Orleans Hornets

The Jazz visit New Orleans, where they called home from 1974-78.

Pete Maravich typified the virtuosity of Duke Ellington's jazz in his five magical years when the Jazz more naturally played in New Orleans.

This present-day game will showcase a couple of wondrous court wizards that would make Pistol Pete proud. Picked third and fourth in the 2005 NBA Draft respectively, Deron Williams and Chris Paul make this a must-see.

• Wednesday, April 16 – New Jersey Nets at Boston Celtics

It’s difficult to forecast which final regular season games will matter, but something tells me that in the suddenly crowded Eastern Conference playoff picture these two teams could be playing for important seeding down to the wire.

Just in case, check out the first three times they meet, starting Saturday, November 10. Both teams are well-known for their star trios, and lack of depth. But while the Celtics are the chic pick in the East, the return of Nenad Krstic and addition of Jamaal Magloire indicates the Nets might have the more support to surround their Big Three.

Gauging Charlie Bell

As a restricted free agent, the Milwaukee Bucks have a chance to match any offer to guard Charlie Bell. And all indications are they will do just that. Still, it’s being reported that teams are showing interest, putting the onus on the Bucks.

"He had a great year," Agent Mark Bartelstein said. "He happens to be restricted. We are determining what will be our best options for his long-term interests.”

The Boston Celtics were said to be one possible suitor for Bell, but not after they signed guards Eddie House and Jackie Manuel.

Retaining Bell is a key for the Bucks because as encouraging as the offseason retooling has been, they need Bell’s valuable minutes at both guard positions coming off the bench. Management knows this, and I’m confident Bell will remain in Milwaukee as a result.

Another quote from Bartelstein:

"He's proven he's a terrific player in this league. Worst case, he's one of the best third guards in the NBA. And he certainly has not shown he can't be a starter."

Naturally, agents have more than a little bias when it comes to the players they represent. But is there some truth to Bartelstein’s remarks? While Bell only really arrived last season, he has played admirably the last two years and is still on the way up. Without getting into the starter-material part of the comment, and limiting it to Eastern Conference third guards, let’s briefly consider a few other intriguing backup guards heading into the 2007-08 campaign.

Last year with the Toronto Raptors, Jose Calderon truly stepped up, teaming with T.J. Ford to form an excellent two-headed point guard attack that the team rode to a division title. Just 25 years old and still improving, Calderon is easily one of the top third guards in the league, and one of the few in the conference I’d clearly pick over Bell.

Veteran Washington Wizards guard Antonio Daniels hasn’t quite lived up to his fourth overall selection in the 1997 draft but is a heady performer who routinely ranks among the league leaders in assist-to-turnover ratio. In fact, he had the best ratio in the NBA last season. Also, watch for rookie teammate Nick Young to earn minutes and contribute sooner rather than later.

The Indiana Pacers have a couple of able backups in Marquis Daniels and Fond du Lac native Travis Diener, but Bell is superior to both as things stand.

The Miami Heat recently signed guard Smush Parker, a comparable player to Bell. I’d give Bell the edge.

Others up-and-coming types worth keeping an eye on this year include New York Knicks guard Nate Robinson, Philadelphia 76ers guard Louis Williams, Cleveland Cavaliers guard Daniel Gibson, Chicago Bulls guard Thabo Sefolosha, and New Jersey Nets guard Marcus Williams.

I’m not going to tackle the entire league in this discussion, as my player rankings will give more light to this debate. And it didn’t take this little roster-crunching exercise to know that Bell is a real piece of the Bucks’ puzzle. But it does show that even agents possess, at least occassionally, the ability to refrain from complete hyperbole when describing their clients. More importantly it reaffirms the importance of Bell staying in Milwaukee.

Celtics Nearing Trade For Garnett

The Boston Celtics are close to acquiring Kevin Garnett from the Minnesota Timberwolves according to SportsIllustrated.com.

Apparent centerpieces of the trade are Garnett, Al Jefferson, and Gerald Green.

“Boston and the Minnesota Timberwolves are still haggling over the pieces that will accompany Al Jefferson, Theo Ratliff and Gerald Green to Minnesota, with the Celtics trying to hold onto second-year point guard Rajon Rondo and keep him out of the trade.”

If this trade occurs the Celtics become instant and serious contenders in the Eastern Conference behind the trio of Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Garnett.

This could also mean a hit to the Milwaukee Bucks' playoff chances. One must consider the Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers, Chicago Bulls, and New Jersey Nets as pretty steady playoff choices right now. If you add the Garnett-Celtics to the list that makes six out of eight possible spots difficult to break into. And that's without mentioning strong contenders like the Washington Wizards, Toronto Raptors, and Orlando Magic.

The Bucks have legitimate postseason aspirations, but they'll need to tread what appears to be an increasingly crowded East playoff path.

2007 Team USA: More Than One Right Answer

Team USA will participate in the FIBA Americas Championship, held from August 22 to September 2.

Team USA will play, in order, Venezuela, U.S. Virgin Islands, Canada, and Brazil in group play. A final showdown with Argentina is probable, assuming both powers can escape the single-elimination tournament that follows group play.

Team USA brought 17 players for training from July 20 to July 22.

“Members of the USA Basketball Men’s Senior National Team expected to participate in the July 20-22 training include: Carmelo Anthony (Denver Nuggets); Shane Battier (Houston Rockets); Chauncey Billups (Detroit Pistons); Chris Bosh (Toronto Raptors); Kobe Bryant (Los Angeles Lakers); Tyson Chandler (New Orleans Hornets); Kevin Durant (Seattle SuperSonics); Kirk Hinrich (Chicago Bulls); Dwight Howard (Orlando Magic); LeBron James (Cleveland Cavaliers); Jason Kidd (New Jersey Nets); Mike Miller (Memphis Grizzlies); Tayshaun Prince (Detroit Pistons); Michael Redd (Milwaukee Bucks); J.J. Redick (Orlando Magic); Amaré Stoudemire (Phoenix Suns); and Deron Williams (Utah Jazz).”

The roster must be trimmed to 12 for the actual tournament. With the options available, cuts won’t be easy. This is a very good group, with Redick being the only player that clearly doesn’t belong.

The players squared off in a scrimmage on July 22. Team Blue topped Team White 105-104 after Bryant’s game-winning shot with six seconds remaining.

Bryant’s presence is huge in light of the many recent disappointments of Team USA. Having Kidd, 28-0 all-time for Team USA run the show is also of paramount importance. Not all choices are so obvious though. Here’s one shot at what the 2007 version should look like:

C- Dwight Howard/Tyson Chandler
PF- Chris Bosh/Amare Stoudemire
SF- LeBron James/Tayshaun Prince/Kevin Durant
SG- Kobe Bryant/Michael Redd
PG- Jason Kidd/Chauncey Billups/Deron Williams

Cuts: Carmelo Anthony/Kirk Hinrich/Mike Miller/Shane Battier/J.J. Redick

The important thing to remember here is that there is more than one right answer for Team USA. With recent failures, it may seem like there aren’t any right answers. This is a very different group however, and great options are plentiful.

The glaring omission from the above team is Anthony, who was named 2006 USA Basketball Male Athlete of the Year.

I like Anthony, and would be confident about the team’s chances if he played a prominent role. Just like I’d have no huge qualms if Hinrich or Miller made the team. Again, there are multiple roster combinations that should bring the same result: victory.

I know Anthony is going to make the team. ESPN.com’s Chris Sheridan told me as much:

“Alex (Milwaukee, Wisconsin): What are the chances Carmelo Anthony does not make the 12-man team? I know he's talented, and played well last year. But I like LeBron/Kobe/Kidd to start, and he shouldn't be coming off the bench. Plus, looking ahead to 2008 with Wade and company back in the mix, he probably won't be a good fit.

SportsNation Chris Sheridan: (12:10 PM ET ) He was by far, and I mean BY FAR, the best player on the 2006 team. He's a lock for 2008.

And when I make my player rankings here before the regular season, he will be ahead some of the guys on my roster. But the whole idea behind the new Team USA is to put together the best team. And here’s why I believe I did that:

Howard and Chandler are givens at center for now. With Elton Brand, Carlos Boozer and others out of the mix for this competition, they are the only viable options. And good ones they are. Howard shot 9-9 from the field in the recent scrimmage and Chandler gives the team a strong defensive presence and shot-blocking ability.

I prefer the more natural power forwards in Bosh and Stoudemire rather than having Anthony take up a spot here. There are only four real post players in the group, so they all need to be there.

Next is a crowded small forward position. James is the best fit alongside Kidd and Bryant to start. Prince is a defensive stopper and an excellent team player; exactly the attributes necessary for coming off the bench on a team like this. Finally, Durant is a great pick for a few reasons. First, he’s good enough to play. This isn’t the case of bringing along someone that’s not ready at the expense of someone that is. And Durant, as a rookie, won’t expect big minutes, meaning he won’t be a threat to team-cohesiveness. Finally, it would be a great learning experience for a player that is likely to play a integral role for Team USA over the next decade.

Bryant obviously starts at shooting guard. Redd is the pick to back him up over Miller because he is a more dynamic offensive force and superior overall player.

Kidd already has taken a leadership role, putting his undefeated record on the line. Billups is another ultra-steady court general. Williams gets the nod over Hinrich because he is more likely to step up as a serious option for the 2008 Olympics.

There is more than one right answer for Team USA in 2007. But it’s important to examine the options carefully, because it will be a lot easier to slip up once the competition improves so greatly in Beijing for the 2008 Olympics.