We're Moving! New Blog...

After spending a great summer and start of fall here I am moving on to a new project: Brew Hoop.

The new site is a boederbucks/Just Another Bucks Fan collaboration, so I'm excited to join forces with Frank, who has already written a welcome message and Wednesday notes.

Brew Hoop is also a part of SB Nation, a network which already includes some of the top basketball blogs like Blog A Bull, Blazers Edge, and Golden State Of Mind.

boederbucks will stay here as a reference. And here's an RSS Feed for the new blog... Hope to see you there.

Mason, Yi To Start

The big news is that Desmond Mason and Yi Jianlian will start for the Bucks in the opener, as reported in the Journal Sentinel.

Throughout the exhibition season, Krystkowiak downplayed the importance of starting. In fact, he didn't make a big deal of informing his players as to who would be starting, merely mentioning it in an off-handed way, during a drill in which the Bucks were playing defense against some of the things Orlando does on offense.

"I remember playing," Krystkowiak said. "So I understand the starting talk. But the five starters don't mean they're our best five players. It's not a horse race to see which guy started, which guy had the most effective preseason. There's been hundreds of cases where a guy just makes sense to get out there and start.

I've been pretty consistent in my support of Villanueva starting at power forward because he's the superior player as things stand right now and Yi has enough pressure to perform as it is. However, both will see similar minutes and Coach Krystkowiak seems to be going out of his way to explain Yi and Villanueva are in this together and who starts isn't of huge importance. If Yi struggles, we'll probably see that who starts becomes a little more important but at this point I'm not terribly worried about it.

Commenting On A Preview

The Bratwurst spent some time giving a rundown of the Bucks' roster with player-by-player previews.

A sample:

"Mo Williams: I’ve never really bought into the whole “pure point guard” vs. “shoot-first point guard” thing for two reasons: first, the most important thing is for the team to score more points than the opposition and, second, there isnt really any good way to objectively measure how good a passer a player is. Assists, for example, has as much to do with the point guards’ pass as it does with the finishing ability of the recipient and the decision of the official scorer. So does Mo shoot too much? Last season he took the 5th most shots per 40 minutes of all point guards (behind Arenas, Parker, Cassell and Davis) with 16.87, but the difference between him and the #21 point guard (Stephon Marbury) was only 2.81 shots per 40! That’s less than 1 per quarter! Also, Mo had several games where he was the only starter in uniform, so his scoring was necessary. No, his shooting was fine. Mo’s new contract is reasonable given his production and age, and he still has room to improve. Point guards often take years and years to reach their peaks, so while Williams will most likely plateau as a slightly below-all-star level player, there is always the outside chance that he could have a Chanuncey Billups-like career."

Good stuff as always. I tend to agree that while there are different types of players at every position who possess different strengths and weaknesses, and point guard is no different, it is sometimes an exaggerated concept. If Williams is going to help the team score, and use his strengths to do so, he shouldn't be condemned. Not everyone can be like Jason Kidd or Steve Nash and I'd sure rather have Williams than Brevin Knight, or a number of other "pure point guards" running Milwaukee's show.

That said, hopefully he will continue to play to his strengths while developing better distribution skills. Like it was noted, point guards take time to progress, so it's certainly not out of the question, and in fact is likely that Williams will develop as a passer. That shows that players shouldn't be labeled so generically, because labels stick, but players change.

Adjusted Plus-Minus Scores

82games.com's Steve Ilardi unveils adjusted plus-minus scores for the 2006-07 season.

"This is exactly what the adjusted plus-minus stat does: it reflects the impact of each player on his team's bottom line (scoring margin), after controlling statistically for the strength of every teammate and every opponent during each minute he's on the court."

That's just a very small part of the explanation, so it's worth reading some of the details. For instance, the 2005-06 season is given some weight and last year's playoffs were doubly weighted.

Michael Redd is ranked 20th among players who played at least 20 minutes per game out of 175 qualified players.

Others of note:

63/175. Andrew Bogut
115/175. Charlie Bell
124/175. Mo Williams
170/175. Desmond Mason

And some from the under-20 minute group:

16/167. Charlie Villanueva
66/167. Jake Voskuhl
82/167. Dan Gadzuric
163/167. David Noel

There are noted error margins which Ilardi goes into detail about and might help explain some of the more questionable ratings, such as:

17/175. Rajon Rondo
30/175. Brad Miller
41/175. Tim Thomas
80/175. Carmelo Anthony
150/175. Richard Jefferson

Like all mathematical statistical measurements, this one doesn't quite answer definitively questions about player rankings, despite what Ilardi says. Adjusted plus-minus ratings are however another valuable tool that one can use in player comparisons.

In considering the Bucks' ratings, one that jumps out right away is Mason's, who also had a low, -4.9 Roland Rating last year. Perhaps more surprising is Williams' low rating, which contrats his solid 1.4 Roland Rating.

Odds And Wins

The Painted Area recently made some over/under picks based on Sportsbook. Considering they went 6-1 in their picks last year, it’s probably worth taking a look.

Here’s a sample:

"San Antonio: Over 54.5 (58 wins last year)
Just look here. Since Tim Duncan entered the NBA in 1997, the Spurs have won at least 56 every year (if you pro-rate the lockout season) except 1999-00, when they won 53. Further, they have won at least 58 for seven straight seasons. I'm gonna keep riding this horse until I get thrown off."

The author doesn’t make a pick for the Bucks, who are listed as 36.5 in the article but are now at 35.5.

Here are a few other Bucks' mentions:

• Michael Redd is 15-1 to win the scoring title and 75-1 to win the MVP.

• Andrew Bogut is 35-1 to lead the league in rebounding.

• The Bucks are 35-1 to win the Eastern Conference and 100-1 to win the NBA Championship.
  

My picks on the over/under:

• Los Angeles Lakers Under 44.5
• Is this assuming they are going to land Luol Deng, Ben Gordon, and Tyrus Thomas?

• Milwaukee Bucks Over 35.5
• A Bucks blog taking the over on the Bucks? (elaboration on predictions coming soon)
  

• Orlando Magic Under 47.5
• Who inspires confidence other than Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis here?

• Seattle Supersonics Under 27.5
• In the last five years, an average of four teams per year have finished with 27 wins or fewer. How do they not fit in that equation?

• Toronto Raptors Over 41.5
• Chris Bosh, T.J. Ford, Jose Calderon, and Andrea Bargnani are on the way up, not down, right?

HoopsWorld Interviews Redd

HoopsWorld interviewed Michael Redd after the Bucks’ final preseason game.

Perhaps the most interesting part:

So, of course, what's this team's biggest weakness right now?

"Weakness? Obviously, I think our offense still needs a lot of work. We haven't put all of our sets in yet, so we're still working on our offense. Playing hard and playing defense will cover up the offense on a lot of nights."

Well, okay. There have been some offensively challenged preseason games to be sure, but that’s definitely a new take on Bucks basketball. Here’s to hoping that the offense is indeed the team’s biggest worry.

Preseason Game #8: Timberwolves Blow Out Bucks

The Minnesota Timberwolves rocked the Milwaukee Bucks 106-85 to conclude the Bucks' preseason schedule.

Michael Redd and Mo Williams returned in backup roles, and played team-leading 27 minutes each. Andrew Bogut sat out again with a sprained left wrist.

Six stats:

1. Dan Gadzuric started and scored a team-high 16 points and pulled down eight rebounds, four off the offensive glass.
2. Charlie Bell started and scored 10 points on 3-4 shooting in nine minutes.
3. Charlie Villanueva scored six points on 2-7 shooting along with two rebounds in 22 minutes. He had a team-high three steals.
4. The Bucks only had one block total, courtesy of Michael Redd. The Timberwolves only had two blocks as a team.
5. Mo Williams scored eight points and had six assists and two steals in 27 points. He turned the ball over five times.
6. The Timberwolves shot 32-49 (.653) from the field and 4-6 (.667) from the three-point line.

More Rookie Rankings

NBA.com's Dave McMenamin got into the rookie rankings party with a top ten, plus ten.

It's a very different list than Burns', as McMenamin based his rankings only off preseason performances. As such, he is forced to make some interesting choices, like ranking Aaron Gray fifth.

Yi Jianlian doesn't make the first ten, instead falling into the alphabetically listed "next ten."

Rookie Rankings

SI.com's Marty Burns ranked ten impact rookies for this year. It's not exactly a preseason Rookie of the Year list, because he said that his number one, Luis Scola, probably won't win the award. He rates Yi Jianlian number nine.

A sample:

"But he's been up and down in preseason, and the Bucks already have Charlie Villanueva at the power forward position. With the Bucks seeking to return to the playoffs, the guess here is that Yi finds himself in the same limited role as Law."

While that's not quite what voters on this site think, judging by the last couple games, Yi does seem most likely to come off the bench. But he's going to see at least 20 minutes per game, which is probably more of an impact than Burns' number eight choice, Joakim Noah.

Roster Talk

HoopsHype found a couple articles speculating about the Bucks' looming roster decisions:

The Charlotte Observer noted the Bucks might cut Michael Ruffin.

"NBA teams have until Friday to trim their rosters to 15 or fewer players. There's been some speculation the Milwaukee Bucks might cut Michael Ruffin, a player Vincent wanted over the summer. Still, no roster spot means no wiggle room for the Bobcats."

With the tough-luck Bobcats already witnessing big injuries to Sean May and Adam Morrison, they could use a forward. Ruffin has played about as well as Jake Voskuhl this preseason, which is to say he's been borderline adequate.

Meanwhile, Gery Woelfel writes about Ramon Sessions' possible future with the Bucks.
The Bucks are expected to keep second-round draft pick Ramon Sessions. Sessions, a point guard, has been solid throughout training camp.

"It is believed Sessions will start the season with the Bucks and then around the second week of November will likely be assigned to Tulsa, the Bucks' D-League affiliate."

I liked the Sessions pick on draft day and nothing I've seen so far has dissuaded me of that opinion. Then again, Royal Ivey has been one of the most pleasant preseason surprises so there doesn't appear to be a lot of point guard minutes available for Sessions yet. Sessions is averaging the fewest minutes per game of any Buck this preseason.

Preseason Game #7: Bulls Defeat Bucks

The Chicago Bulls beat the Milwaukee Bucks 97-81 on Thursday night.

The Bucks tried a very different rotation, with Michael Redd, Mo Williams, Andrew Bogut, Awvee Storey, and Michael Ruffin not playing.

Six statistics:

1. Charlie Villanueva started and scored a team-high 19 points on 6-10 shooting in 27 minutes. He also led the team in rebounds with eight and blocks with two.
2. Bobby Simmons scored just three points on 1-5 shooting in 28 minutes. He committed a team-high four turnovers.
3. The Bucks did not win any quarters, tying the second quarter 22-22 and losing the other three quarters.
4. David Noel played 25 minutes off the bench and scored five points on 2-7 shooting. He was the only Buck to not turn the ball over.
5. The Bucks had fewer team rebounds (38-32), assists (24-18), steals (10-4), blocks (8-3), and committed more turnovers (20-15). They also shot a worse percentage from the field (.494-.433), and from the free-throw line (.684-.621).
6. The Bucks shot 5-11 (.455) on three-pointers.

Preseason Game #6: Nuggets Top Bucks

The Denver Nuggets beat the Milwaukee Bucks 114-102 on Tuesday night. If the team’s previous game was characterized by Yi Jianlian’s impressive performance, then last night spotlighted the other previously struggling power forward, Charlie Villanueva.

Yi currently leads Villanueva by a pretty fair margin in the poll asking who should start at power forward. Most of the votes came after Yi’s big game and before Villanueva’s however. I've maintained Villanueva should get the nod. Let’s just hope they both play well at the same time eventually because the up-and-down performances don't distinguish either of them, and make it hard to tell if the Bucks have no starting power forwards on the roster or two.

Six stats:

1. Villanueva shot 9-16 from the field and scored a team-high 21 points in 29 minutes off the bench. He also grabbed 11 rebounds and dished out five assists. His only struggle came from outside, making 1-5 three-pointers. After hitting two out of three from outside in the first preseason game, Villanueva has made only 3-20 since.
2. The Bucks scored 37 points and allowed 34 in the second quarter, their highest offensive and defensive quarter of the preseason.
3. Desmond Mason got to the free-throw line 11 times, after getting to the line 12 times in the previous game. He’s 16-23 in the two games.
4. Mo Williams shot 0-5 from the field in 17 minutes before being ejected in the third quarter.
5. Michael Redd scored 19 points and had a team-high seven assists and 38 minutes played.
6. Royal Ivey scored 10 points, shot 5-6 from the free-throw line, dished out two assists, and didn’t turn the ball over in 22 minutes.

Preseason Game #5: Bucks Defeat Timberwolves

The Milwaukee Bucks topped the Minnesota Timberwolves 106-97 to win the 31st annual MACC Fund game on Saturday night.

On cue, after I attempted to anoint Charlie Villanueva the starting power forward, Yi Jianlian delivered easily his best performance since coming to Milwaukee.

As I'll detail below, he had a very good game statistically and all indications are that the numbers aren't lying in this case. We must remember, even though the starters played big minutes last night, that it's still preseason. A lot of young players around the league have put up big numbers in a game here and there this preseason. It is worth getting excited about, just with a little caution. Last night's performance shows that Yi has the potential to be a very capable player on the NBA level. It's safe to say we'll be seeing a lot of Villanueva, Yi, and Dan Gadzuric on the court (probably not at the same time) this season.

Six more stats:

1. Yi Jianlian scored 15 points on only nine shots from the field in 27 minutes. He also pulled down 12 rebounds and committed just one turnover.
2. Charlie Villanueva scored eight points on 15 shots from the field in 21 minutes and missed all five of his three-point attempts. However, he grabbed 11 rebounds, including six on the offensive glass.
3. The Bucks made twice as many free throws (32) as the Timberwolves (16).
4. The bench (Desmond Mason, Charlie Bell, Dan Gadzuric, Royal Ivey, and Villanueva) shot a combined 7-31 (.226) from the field with four assists and eight turnovers.
5. Mo Williams scored 20 points, made all three of his three-point attempts, dished out 12 assists, and committed only one turnover.
6. Desmond Mason shot just 3-10 from the field but got to the free-throw line 12 times, making eight, in 24 minutes.

Ranking The Bucks' Options At Power Forward

There’s some debate about who should start at power forward this season, and who should even be called one. Michael Ruffin is the fourth choice, but despite his willingness to the dirty work, there isn’t quite enough of a case to make for him. The latest is that there are three contenders, so my task is to rank them:

• 1. Charlie Villanueva

One could argue he shouldn’t start. His versatility and lack of go-to game make him a natural to come off the bench. Further, his shooting percentages were better across the board not starting last year:

"Starting: FG: .469 FT: .735 3PT: .265

Off Bench: FG: .471 FT: .925 3PT: .385"

Just twenty-three years old, he would only now be a rookie if he had stayed in school four years at Connecticut. But he was NBA-ready out of college as evidenced by his easy second place finish in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2005.

Many were encouraged when Larry Harris traded away T.J. Ford because of his deficiencies and injuries. Villanueva proved there were two similar sides of that coin. Injuries stunted his growth last season, but he says his shoulder is “100 % ready.” Entering his third year in the NBA, the next step is develop more consistency. The injuries are out of his control, but the Bucks can’t afford to rotate starting lineups so frequently this season. It's important to have a variety of capable lineups, but the starting one should be have consistency.

In the end, he’s the most logical choice to start alongside Andrew Bogut in the frontcourt given his superior talent. Villanueva’s youthful athleticism makes him a good fit on a first-string that will push the ball early and often. His all-around skill set exceeds the other competitors. While others have some specific areas of strength, Villanueva can do a little of everything: rebound, run the floor, and shoot from outside. The realistic best-case scenario for Yi Jianlian is to duplicate Villanueva’s rookie season. Granted, Villanueva has yet to take a firm step forward since his rookie year, but there’s little chance he’ll regress now in his third year.

Keep in mind, injuries marred a strong start last year by Villanueva. In November, he averaged 14.6 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.3 steals and shot .495 from the field. He didn’t match any of those statistics in any other month the rest of the season. A fresh beginning and the confidence that comes with a starting role will help him find the fast track he has been on intermittently the last couple years.

• 2. Yi Jianlian

At 6'11" and 238 pounds, he’s virtually the identical size of Villanueva. Contrary to official records, there are some whispers that he might be the about the same age too. One thing we do know is that he’s played four accomplished years of professional basketball in the Chinese Basketball Association. Last year, he averaged 24.9 points and 11.5 rebounds.

The question is how those numbers will translate to the NBA. If the open scrimmage and preseason is any indication, Yi has some ability to score on this new level (though not more than Villanueva at present), but will frequently be overmatched defensively. In the open scrimmage, he didn't provide any real resistance guarding Bogut. It's not as though Villanueva's expertise is defense either, but he's at least had some experience. Yi won’t have to guard centers, but consider some Eastern Conference power forwards that he’d be forced to defend: Kevin Garnett, Chris Bosh, and Jermaine O’Neal. While they are lean, they are premier rebounders and aren’t hesitant to attack the basket. Yi's tendency to pick up fouls and turnovers at a high rate so far doesn't inspire confidence either.

The Bucks have a powerful offense, but can’t afford to fall behind in the first quarter each night because they have below-average defenders all over the court at the same time. Again, Villanueva is no defensive star, but letting Yi start and pick up fouls quickly will slow down the tempo of the game, which won’t work in the Bucks’ favor. He’s best served to come off the bench, where he can get more playing time against opposing team’s backups. With the pressure of potentially 1.3 billion onlookers back home and a skeptical American media, the Bucks need to allow Yi some comfort and room to grow initially. That will ultimately expedite the process of Yi’s ascent to legitimate starting-caliber power forward status anyway. And then we can more seriously revisit this debate.

• 3. Dan Gadzuric

If Gadzuric would have progressed even moderately since his solid 2004-05 campaign, he’d have a decent case to start, like he did 81 times that year for the Bucks.

Unfortunately, he’s inexplicably regressed in what should be his prime years. Even his old strengths, like activity on the offensive glass and a high shooting percentage, have taken a turn for the worse.

Then again, his preseason performances give some reason to believe he’s ready to return to form. And coming off a defensively-challenged season, a frontcourt of Bogut and Gadzuric is the team’s best bet to create some semblance of a defensive identity. Bogut looks ready to step up as a more consistent scorer, further minimizing the problem of Gadzuric’s offensive limitations. Plus, unlike Villanueva, he played better as a starter last year, averaging 10.0 points, 10.1 rebounds, 1.75 blocks, and 1.13 steals on .508 shooting from the field.

However, those statistics need some context. They came at the end of the year and against teams with a combined record of 249-413 (.376). And the Bucks only went 2-6 in the games.

The Bucks have more depth at power forward than center, making Gadzuric more valuable serving as the team’s primary backup center. A Bogut/Gadzuric pairing makes sense depending on matchups and circumstance, and Yi looks poised to mature into a starting-worthy player before too long, but for now at least, Villanueva is the best power forward available. That might not be ideal, or exciting, but it's reality.

Bucks Host Timberwolves In MACC Fund Game

The Milwaukee Bucks welcome the Minnesota Timberwolves to the Bradley Center tonight for the 31st annual MACC Fund Game. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. central time.

The MACC Fund, with the support of the Bucks, has raised huge amounts of money and awareness in an effort to combat cancer. It’s truly a great cause, something the team and city should be very proud of.

Just Another Bucks Fan has a lot more information about the the MACC Fund, the event/game, and how you can make a donation.

Players Visit MPS

(Photo by Gary Dineen - Getty Images/NBAE)

Andrew Bogut, Yi Jianlian, and Ramon Sessions visited three Milwaukee Public Schools and delivered school supplies on October 18 according to Bucks.com.

The visit was a key element of the Bucks Read to Achieve program, which encourages students to maintain good attendance and develop a life-long habit of reading.

It's always good to see such notable figures in the city serving the community in multiple ways. Good stuff, guys.

Team USA Talk

SI.com’s Chris Mannix speculates about one of my favorite subjects: USA Basketball.

After a stellar performance at the FIBA Americas tournament, the opportunity to reclaim the Olympic gold medal is well within the United States' grasp. Players recognize it too, which is why the competition for spots on the U.S. team is going to be as fierce as it has ever been.

"It's going to be a battle," Bucks guard Michael Redd told me last week. "This is a big Olympics, a big chance for everyone. But I welcome the competition. It's going to make everyone who makes the team better."

The gist of the article is that roster spots for Beijing are in high demand. And there are some big names that are potentially going to be in the mix that didn’t play this summer, like Dwyane Wade, Gilbert Arenas, Carlos Boozer, and Elton Brand.

Michael Redd’s spot should be safe after delivering excellent numbers in his shooting specialty role:

FG%: .667
3PT%: .453
FT%: 1.000

Tyson Chandler and Mike Miller are the popular picks to not return. Dwyane Wade and Carlos Boozer are the likeliest choices to replace them. Tayshaun Prince, Chauncey Billups, and Deron Williams are probably the only others who are in realdanger, and all three of them played well.

If there isn’t room for three points guards, Billups might be the one to go, as Williams picked up where he left off in his coming out party in the playoffs, accumulating as many assists as Jason Kidd (46) in 16 fewer minutes in the FIBA’s. Billups has high-pressure experience and success including a Finals MVP, and his reputation as a tough defender working in his favor, but Team USA obviously isn't afraid to go young and Williams might be the better choice, especially after another year of improvement.

Making Up A Bryant Trade

The headline intends to stress the fact there is no actual rumor or reason that indicates Kobe Bryant would come to Milwaukee before November 21 when the Los Angeles Lakers visit the Bradley Center.

Mostly inspired by Rob Peterson’s post on NBA.com’s great new blog, The Court Reporters, I decided to use ESPN.com’s Trade Machine to put together a perfectly impossible and ridiculous trade (because that's what the machine was made for, I think): Michael Redd and Charlie Villanueva (plus draft picks) for Kobe Bryant.

Here’s how the new Bucks lineup would look:

C- Andrew Bogut
PF- Yi Jianlian
SF- Bobby Simmons
SG- Kobe Bryant
PG- Mo Williams

Something tells me that offer wouldn’t exactly floor the Lakers, and that the Bucks aren’t on Bryant’s “list.” Perhaps a Redd/Bogut/Yi (plus draft picks) for Bryant and Vladimir Radmanovich would be juicier, Rob? Well, I tried...

I like Redd and Villanueva anyway.

Williams Interviewed

Gery Woelfel interviewed Milwaukee Bucks guard Mo Williams and it’s up on HoopsHype.

He doesn’t exactly dismiss being a shoot-first point guard, which is truthful, and says his shoulder is fine, which is good.

“The Bucks were decimated by injuries last season and you missed 14 games, mostly because of an injured left shoulder. On the first day of practice this season, you dinged your shoulder and started wearing a protective shoulder pad. How is your shoulder now?

MW: It’s fine. It’s just part of the game, part of training camp. You get banged up. This is the most physical action I’ve had since last season, so the shoulder hasn’t had that physical element since then.”

Villanueva Blogs For NBA.com

Forward Charlie Villanueva blogged for NBA.com on October 10. It's worth reading in its entirety. I've quoted one section where he spoke very kindly about Yi Jianlian, in addition to a lineup he recommends the Bucks use this year.

"I like Yi a lot. He is a good ball handler who has no problem taking opposing defenders off the dribble. He is a great finisher around the basket. He has a great understanding of the game and good court awareness. Rarely does Yi force the play. Instead he lets the game come to him naturally. Yi's game reminds me a bit of myself. I think Yi and I play similarly. We both have good offensive outside and inside games. And we both can create mismatch problems on any given night. It's going to be a great year for us. Coach K (Larry Krystkowiak) has a lot of good options on the frontcourt. The addition of Desmond Mason gives our frontcourt immediate hard defense. Mason is an awesome athlete. He can not only dunk it on you, but his jumpshot has improved as well. You may also possibly see all bigs on the frontcourt, having me at the 3-spot, Yi at the 4 and Bogut at the 5. That's a nice big lineup. I played the Small Forward position the majority of the time while I was with the Toronto Raptors. I love playing both the Small & Power Forward positions."

There are certainly times when that big lineup could work, and of course many other times when it wouldn't. It's definitely worth trying in some situations, but with Bobby Simmons and Desmond Mason in town, the best spot for Villanueva is at power forward, an argument which I'll elaborate on soon.